Sunday, 10 February 2013

Why Didn't Oshiomole Endorse The New "Mega" Party- APC


I noticed Oshiomole's name was conspicuously missing from the 10 governors that endorsed the merger and subsequent formation of the All Progressive Congress. Considering that his party, the ACN was a key player in the merger, you would think he would be one of the key supporters.
But no, A delegation has even been led by Shekarau to woo him and his responses do not connote one eager to join the new party.

What would you think went wrong?
Oshiomole is potentially the biggest asset the new party can wish for, can they afford to do without him?
He talked about selfish interest as a stumbling block to the success of the new party, which of the party's leaders do you think he referenced?

My personal opinion is that if the new party really wants a shot at the presidency, the only man they can position side by side the incumbent, Jonathan and expect to get near to victory is Oshiomole. And this is a function of nothing else but geography.

If you pick a northern candidate in the mould of Buhari and make Fashola or Tinubu his vice, majority of Southerners and Northern Christians would vote for Jonathan. Reason one, is that a Muslim Muslim ticket that has a perceived fanatical Muslim atop the ticket would be utterly unsellable. Even the South West would find that ticket hard to buy. Its only the core north, just like the last election that would give it votes.
If you put a South Western Muslim(Tinubu or Fashola) atop the ticket and select a Northern Muslim as vice, the core North and some good number of South Westerners would buy the ticket, but that would not give victory when you have the Northern Christians and the rest of the south supporting Jonathan.
But if you put Oshiomole atop the ticket with a northern Muslim as vice, he will steal two south south states(Edo & Delta) compulsorily from Jonathan, many South East voters would be comfortable with his candidature, the whole of the south west would support it, many Northern Christians would support the ticket and a huge population of northerners would go with him. The man speaks Hausa fluently, his parents are Muslims, he lived in Kaduna for much of his life, he was the chairman of the Textile workers, so with all these, wooing northern voters would be made easier for him.

Given the foregoing, can the new party afford to do without Oshiomole??

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